Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

A fundamental biological process of transcription occurs in the cell nucleus, which is a complex medium that also contains multiple heterogeneous structures known as biomolecular condensates. Interestingly, some of these condensates contain mRNA molecules in addition to proteins, suggesting an important cellular role in transcription that is not yet well understood. In this work, we develop a minimal theoretical framework for quantitative investigation of the role of reversible mRNA condensation in transcription. Our discrete-state stochastic approach accounts for the most relevant processes, allowing us to explicitly evaluate the properties of the system and clarify the effects of condensation. Analytical calculations supported by computer simulations suggest that reversible mRNA condensation influences the transcription processes by maintaining a constant level of free mRNA in the nucleoplasm while lowering the degree of stochastic noise and increasing the robustness against external perturbations. Physicochemical arguments are presented to explain these observations. The proposed theoretical framework elucidates important microscopic aspects of transcription, providing a convenient quantitative tool for investigating complex biological phenomena.

Interleukin-13 (IL-13) is an immunomodulatory cell signaling cytokine that has been implicated in neurodegenerative disease and chronic inflammation. IL-13 binds to its low and high affinity receptors, IL-13 receptor 1 (IL-13R1) and IL-13 receptor 2 (IL-13R2), respectively, with residence times that vary accordingly. As the binding kinetics of the cytokine-receptor complexes influence cellular responses, we employed the molecular dynamics (MD) simulation-based{tau} -random acceleration molecular dynamics method ({tau}RAMD) to compute relative residence times for wild-type (WT) IL-13 and 19 IL-13 mutants to the two receptors. Comparison with experimental kinetic data shows that the{tau} RAMD computations capture the trends in residence times. Analysis of simulated dissociation trajectories of the cytokine-receptor complexes reveals two distinct dissociation pathways of IL-13 from each of the receptors. This study thus pinpoints key determinants of the interaction of IL-13 with its receptors which could be targeted for therapeutic design. Statement of SignificanceCytokines are regulatory proteins that bind to cell surface receptors and thereby send signals to the cellular interior. Interleukin-13 (IL-13) is a cytokine that has a low and a high affinity receptor. It has important physiological roles, and its deregulation is involved in diseases such as atopic dermatitis and asthma. We employed a molecular dynamics simulation-based method to compute the effects of changes in the sequence of IL-13 on the lifetimes of complexes of IL-13 and its receptors. Comparison with experiments supports the validity of the computational approach and analysis of the simulations reveals two distinct ways in which IL-13 dissociates from each receptor. These results thus provide a map for targeting IL-13 - receptor interactions for the design of therapeutics.

Within the studies of stochastic gene expression, apart from the variability of copy number of gene products, the problems of threshold crossing of those products are biologically important as they often lead to terminal cellular events. Here, we study the threshold crossing problem of the messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) and present an exact probability distribution of first passage times in Laplace space. The function furnishes moments of any order and also predicts the characteristic time of the exponential tail of the distribution, which we match against Gillespie simulations. We find that all the measures of relative fluctuations of the threshold crossing times show U-shapes within this simple model of mRNA, as was found earlier in more mathematically involved models of threshold crossing time statistics of proteins. Furthermore, we extend the exact formula to include the phenomenon of DNA duplication and the corresponding doubling of transcription rate. As expected, the distribution varies considerably depending on the onset of the duplication stage within the cell cycle.

Ecological interactions play a crucial role in driving speciation and adaptive radiation. According to the adaptive dynamics theory of evolution in one-dimensional trait spaces, such evolutionary diversifications can occur when evolutionary branching points (convergence stable and evolutionarily unstable singular points) exist in the trait spaces. However, these evolutionary diversifications may occur across multiple traits at once, as exemplified by various within-species ecotypic diversifications involving multiple traits or genes. This paper attempt to extend this branching point condition to evolution in multi-dimensional trait spaces. Two criteria, termed branching possibility and branching inevitability, are developed to evaluate the likelihood of evolutionary branching in multi-dimensional trait spaces. Branching possibility guarantees the existence of evolutionary pathways that lead to branching (where deterministic parts of these pathways are described with the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics theory). Branching inevitability guarantees a steady progression of evolutionary branching (where the progression degree is described with a time-increasing function related to the local Lyapunov function, the potential function in an evolutionary potential game, and Fisher's fundamental theorem). Numerically simulated evolution in multi-dimensional trait spaces show that points having branching possibility or inevitability can induce evolutionary branching not only under asexual reproduction but also under sexual reproduction.

Structural network representations of metastatic dissemination typically focus on static topology without resolving transport dynamics, relaxation timescales, or steady-state behaviour. Here, we formulate a discrete Markovian transport model on a directed higher-order network with transition rates derived from qualitative clinical affinity classes. By constructing a non-Hermitian row-stochastic transfer operator, we characterise the relaxation dynamics through its spectral decomposition. The system exhibits a fast-mixing regime characterised by a spectral gap of {gamma} {approx} 0.67, corresponding to a characteristic relaxation timescale of {tau} {approx} 1.49 discrete steps, with the influence of the primary tumour origin progressively attenuated during dissemination. Convergence towards a non-equilibrium steady state (NESS) is accompanied by a reduction in Shannon entropy, concentrating probability mass within specific topological sinks. This spectral relaxation delineates two distinct dynamical regimes: early transient dissemination (n < {tau}), dominated by local organ-specific transition probabilities (organotropism), and the asymptotic regime (n > {tau}), determined increasingly by the global transport architecture of the network. Comparison with independent clinical and autopsy observations across 21 primary tumours and 23 target organs indicates that the predicted stationary distribution is consistent with the observed hierarchy of metastatic organ involvement.

The study of tissue dynamics has been stimulated during the last decades thanks to the use of quantitative descriptions, with the development of several theoretical and computational frameworks, many of them revolving around the notion of reaction-diffusion systems, eventually with additional structure variables beyond time and space. The use of structure variables can accommodate phenotypic traits. In this work, we study a family of competition models, where a given population depends on a resource (e.g. oxygen) and several populations are competing for it. Our quantitative description incorporates phenotypic traits and heterogeneity at the level of cell cycle variations, which influence replication rates via oxygen consumption. This enables us to replicate the fitness of specific subpopulations to environmental conditions (e.g. oxygen shortage or external influences). Using numerical simulations, we show that such models display dynamical pattern formation in the form of coupled travelling wave profiles that expand or retreat at the same wave speed. The full theoretical analysis of such dynamics is quite involved; to circumvent this difficulty, we introduce a quasi-stationary approximation for the resource dynamics. We find that this approximation can reproduce the overall behaviour very accurately, with the additional benefit of allowing theoretical treatment of the reduced model. In this way, we provide estimates on the wave speed which are numerically shown to be robust across a wide range of macroscopic parameters of the full model. The wave speeds are thus found to depend strongly on the proliferation rate of the fittest population, resembling a winner-takes-all dynamics.

Time compaction theory is a general framework explaining how a brain can efficiently deal with dynamic situations occurring in, e.g., sports games. It involves a geometric representation of the time dimension, which enables effective learning and strategic action planning. The theory has recently received experimental support in humans. However, its current computational model has an important limitation: it does not account for deliberate waiting and speed modulation, behaviors ubiquitous in natural environments. This work substantially extends the original model formulation by a dimensional lifting of an n-D workspace into (n + 1)-D mental space, where time remains geometrically embedded. The proposed biologically inspired computational model can generate adaptive behavior across increasingly complex situations, from navigation in everyday social environments to competitive sports. Furthermore, by actively conditioning the expected responses of other agents and stabilizing future predictions, we introduce the concept of uncertainty points in sequences of generalized cognitive maps to support the generation of adaptive strategies in interactive environments, where future prediction has a limited time horizon. Thus, we provide a mechanism for chaining short-term solutions into long-term strategies, which is illustrated by simulating the behavior of a player in a real football game. Author summaryHumans often anticipate future interactions in dynamic environments. Many behaviors, such as avoiding other pedestrians, letting someone pass through a narrow corridor, or reproducing the kind of dribbling maneuvers performed by elite football players, require deciding not only where to move but also when to move. Existing theories suggest that the brain simplifies such situations by representing future interactions as static spatial maps, making them easier to learn and recall. However, current computational models cannot naturally account for common behaviors such as waiting, slowing down, or modulating speed. Here we show that these behaviors readily emerge if the model space is extended by an additional virtual coordinate that encodes accumulated waiting rather than physical time. The proposed model simultaneously admits a wide variety of behaviors, including speed modulation, multigoal decisions, and compound actions, while preserving the principles of time compaction. We illustrate the model in everyday situations and by reproducing two real football plays, comparing the observed behaviors with model simulations. Our results suggest computational principles through which the human brain may efficiently represent, memorize, and exploit dynamic situations.

This paper presents and critically reviews the results of original and some literature based experimental studies conducted by the authors last years on the structural organization of DNA in dormant (starvation stress), anabiotic dormant (4 HR treatment) E. coli cells, as well as the K12 {Delta}dps strain, which lacks the Dps protein (Dps null E. coli). The experimental data includes small-angle synchrotron radiation diffraction (SAXS) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) data. Synchrotron radiation diffraction experiments on K12{Delta}dps cells allowed us to conclude that peaks at 44.3, 22.1, and 14.8 angstrom resolutions are associated exclusively with ordered DNA organization. Peaks at 44.3, 22.1, and 14.8 angstrom resolutions are also observed for samples of dormant (starvation stress) cells and anabiotically dormant cells. Therefore, this ordered DNA organization also applies to samples of dormant and anabiotically dormant cells. A model is proposed that considers the ordered DNA organization in the cell as a cholesteric liquid crystal. The powder diffraction pattern calculated based on this model is compared with experimental small angle X ray scattering (SAXS) data obtained on Dps-null cell samples. The model completely reproduces the key features of the experimental diffraction pattern from Dps-null cell samples. Accordingly, the cholesteric liquid crystal model corresponds to DNA packaging in dormant and anabiotically dormant cells. Cholesteric liquid crystal ordering should be further considered in all models of cellular DNA packaging. To address the question of which structural organization of DNA predominates in the cell: the cholesteric liquid crystal or nanocrystalline or whether they coexist and fully manifest themselves under different external conditions, it is necessary to utilize the latest methodological advances in structural analysis.

Habitat destruction leads to a severe decline in biodiversity. Ascertaining effects of habitat loss afterwards is regularly done, whereas predicting the effects of different habitat loss scenarios on biodiversity beforehand is much preferred but as of yet rarely possible. Such predictions would help inform management decisions to prevent biodiversity loss in the first place, or at least mitigate effects if necessary, by providing handles to set priorities in making trade-offs. To this end, we developed and applied an adapted version of the information-theoretical framework of Maximum Entropy Theory in Ecology (METE) to predict species-area relationships in tropical forest landscapes undergoing habitat loss and fragmentation. Species-area relationships provide information about biodiversity and can, in undisturbed systems, be predicted using METE, based on state variables such as the total number of individuals, the total number of species, and the total area size. In disturbed systems, however, it is established that METEs predictions are off. Using an individual-based model, we explore how METEs state variables should be adjusted, based on the landscape characteristics habitat cover and degree of habitat fragmentation, to restore its accuracy of species-area relationship predictions in disturbed environments. We validate our adjusted METE predictions with empirical data. Our adjusted METE predictions demonstrate the severity of fragmentations impact on biodiversity, relative to what could be expected in a pristine, continuous environment. With this new method, we can estimate the immediate effects of habitat loss on biodiversity, as well as its long-term effects.

Biological populations have been evolving in multi-dimensional trait spaces. Ecological interactions can induce the evolutionary diversification of a biological population into distinct multiple populations, which is called evolutionary branching in adaptive dynamics theory. If possible mutations are restricted to certain directions due to developmental, physiological, or physical constraints, the resulting evolutionary dynamics may be restricted to subspaces with fewer dimensions than the original trait spaces. In general, such constraints are also evolving slowly, due to rare and slight mutational deviations from the constraint subspaces. In this sense, constraints are not strict. However, the method for describing non-strict constraints that is globally consistent has yet to be developed. This study proposes a general and flexible method for constructing a non-strict constraint subspace from the corresponding strict constraint subspace. This method enables efficient analysis of adaptive evolution including evolutionary branching under non-strict constraints in the framework of adaptive dynamics theory. Applying this method to a resource competition model shows that the shape of the carrying capacity distribution can be treated as a non-strict constraint curve, and that the likelihood of evolutionary branching is affected not only by the shape of the constraint curve but also by its slow evolution.

Based on our experimental observation of activation state oscillations of different frequencies used to communicate information by the master human stress response regulator protein p38 MAPK 1, we develop a simple graphical approach for understanding and predicting the behavior of complex biological networks acting upon signals carrying information as different frequency waves of chemicals. This approach uses the same techniques used for analyzing and understanding information transmission using waves of electrical currents and fields used in electrical alternating current (AC) circuits. We show how biological components can be organized to behave as standard components found in electronic telecommunications circuits. Finally, we demonstrate how such components can be organized into complex biological signaling cascades whose behavior can be qualitatively and quantitatively understood, and whose output resembles that experimentally observed in p38.

In many natural dynamical systems, tipping points emerge where slowly changing external factors induce shifts from one state to another, known as critical transitions or bifurcations. In epidemic systems, detecting these transitions is important for outbreak preparedness. Various statistical indicators like lag-1 autocorrelation and variance have been employed as early warning signals (EWS) of critical transitions by showing how the dynamics of the system exhibit critical slowing down (CSD) near the transition. More recently, deep learning-based algorithms have been developed that attempt to more accurately detect and classify bifurcations; however, they are limited by the systems simulated in the training dataset, the length of the time series, and have not been rigorously evaluated on real-world epidemic data spanning multiple geographic regions. In this paper, we evaluate existing deep learning-based bifurcation prediction models, on a CDC-curated dataset containing weekly influenza hospital admissions across all fifty U.S. states and the nation as a whole. We develop a pipeline for data preparation, reproduction number (Rt) estimation using the EpyEstim package (a Python implementation of the EpiEstim framework [4]), and bifurcation point identification. We systematically evaluate the models under several windowing strategies, including rolling, expanding, and fixed-length windows, and report accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and specificity. Our best-performing configuration (expanding window, length 100) achieves an accuracy of 90.09%, precision of 72.86%, recall of 96.23%, and F1 score of 82.93%. We additionally discuss Markov Regime Switching models as an alternative framework for detecting epidemic transitions. Our findings indicate that these models can generalize to real-world, state-level influenza data and are capable of online/real-time prediction.

Buruli ulcer (BU) is a neglected tropical skin disease caused by infection with Mycobacterium ulcerans. The mode of its transmission into the skin has not been fully clarified, but it is believed to involve mechanical transfer, perhaps by insect bites. M. ulcerans secretes a toxin called mycolactone which causes necrosis of the skin and formation of large skin lesions. Understanding the development of these skin lesions over time is crucial to understand the pathogenesis of BU. We formulate a mathematical model to describe the space-time dynamics of M. ulcerans bacteria, mycolactone and skin cell densities as well as fibrin deposition. We investigate the relative contributions to ulcer formation of direct cytotoxicity of mycolactone and ischaemia following the loss of coagulation control. Our results are consistent with existing biological evidence that higher mycolactone concentrations accelerate cell death. Furthermore, the model indicates that the rate of wound expansion is primarily controlled by the diffusion and net birth rate of bacteria, which sets the overall scaling for the speed of wound expansion, along with two dimensionless constants that define the shape of the trajectory of wound edge position against time, namely the ratio of the mycolactone diffusion coefficient to the bacterial diffusion coefficient, and the ratio of the mycolactone degradation rate to the bacterial net birth rate. When mycolactone diffuses significantly faster than bacteria spread or when mycolactone degrades more slowly than bacteria reproduce, the initial development of the wound is faster. In contrast, the long-term wound expansion speed appears to be relatively unchanged across a wide range of the dimensionless parameters.

We develop a general geometrical framework for growth processes in which the growth rate depends exponentially on the number of active growth-supporting components. The framework separates the fraction of active components from the size of the accessible component space, allowing qualitatively different growth laws to arise from the same underlying construction. Bacterial population growth provides an example of a fixed-size component space controlled primarily by activation and deactivation, whereas examples such as human population growth or speciation provide an expanding component space in which interactions between individuals promote further growth. This motivates a Replicative geometrical law, dX/dt= X exp({beta} X^{gamma}), whose exponent characterizes the scaling of the effective growth-supporting component space and is tested against historical human-population regimes and eukaryotic lineage-through-time data. For innovation indicators such as patents and arXiv manuscript submissions, where an existing item need not itself reproduce, the same construction motivates a Direct Geometrical production law without the prefactor X. The framework therefore provides a common description of fixed and expanding component spaces while distinguishing Replicative from Direct Geometrical growth.

Biological processes, from molecules diffusing to their regulatory destinations to whales pursuing food or mates, are widely exploratory. Such behaviors are effective when some verifiable functional state or outcome can be reached regardless of initial conditions. In these cases, systems repeatedly undergo distinct and abortive trajectories; the process only ends when the system finds 'right' outcomes. This dominance of the terminal condition (and indifference to the initial state) provokes a very different perspective than the conventional 'dynamical systems' framework that has been a centerpiece of the quantitative sciences for centuries. We hypothesize that many of these problems defy the initial-condition driven or gradients on landscapes so useful in problems ranging from mechanics to electrodynamics to chemical kinetics to mass and heat transport. We examine several mathematical frameworks that capture and unify key aspects of exploratory dynamics. One powerful way of thinking of such processes is the geometric distribution, where repeated failures are punctuated by a successful trajectory. We develop intuitions for how random walks with resets accelerate search processes. We highlight fresh and surprising behaviors of search under drift, cues, and checkpoints. Last, appreciating the probability of trajectories conditioned on satisfying macroscopic final outcomes reveals a language for the potency of variation sculpted by selection in their broadest forms. This can give the fictitious appearance of the future making itself known in the present, but we view this as conceptually similar to the way 'fictitious forces' arise in non-inertial reference frames. These approaches stress unity, open questions, and applications across a range of biological phenomena.

In this study, we develop a mathematical model of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) axis and systematically investigate the model complexity required to reproduce observed hormone dynamics. The model is fitted to ACTH and cortisol measurements from five healthy volunteers reported in the literature. We show that simultaneous reproduction of both hormone profiles requires a delay differential equation model with at least five state variables among the model architectures considered. Following fitting the volunteer data, we investigate the response of the model to sustained stress using bifurcation analysis. The coupled system exhibits bifurcations over a range of stress intensities. This analysis reveals bifurcations whose critical stress thresholds depend strongly on the modulatory state of the system. These results provide a mathematical framework for investigating transitions between physiological and dysregulated HPA axis dynamics, which may be related to states of health and disease.

The process of drug unbinding is of immense importance in the field of biophysics and therapeutics. The behavior of these systems is greatly influenced by their thermodynamic and kinetic properties. Therefore, it is crucial to accurately estimate the ligand binding free energies and rate of ligand dissociation, yet these processes are often governed by rare event transitions that lie beyond the reach of standard brute-force molecular dynamics simulations. While enhanced sampling simulations offer a solution, their efficacy is strictly contingent upon the selection of appropriate collective variables (CVs) which is non-trivial for complex systems like protein-ligand complexes. In this study, we present a method to derive optimized CV from transition state region (TS) via an interpretable machine learning (ML) model, Elastic Net. By employing some physically intuitive order parameters, the derived optimized CV from the TS-region greatly accelerate ligand binding-unbinding transitions and achieves rapid free energy surface (FES) convergence across diverse systems including buried and solvent exposed active sites such as Trpsin-benzamidine complex, host-guest systems and sodium epoxidase etc. Intriguingly significant contribution of the ligand hydration is found in the optimized CV which depicts crucial role of solvent in driving ligand binding-unbinding transitions. The estimated binding free energies for different protein-ligand complexes match quite well with experiments, while maintaining a low computational cost. The derived optimized CV is also used to calculate the ligand residence times across different systems and calculated residence times are within the experimental range for all systems, again with very little computational costs. Moreover, we show that the optimized CV constructed from TS region via an interpretable ML model is transferable across diverse systems, offering a robust and scalable framework for drug discovery and investigation of complex biomolecular recognition.

Understanding the relationship between gene expression dynamics and cellular identity remains a central challenge in single cell biology. Here, we introduce a novel computational and mathematical framework that integrates information geometry, fuzzy topology, and UMAP analysis to model gene expression landscapes derived from single cell RNA sequencing data. We formalize gene expression data as a fuzzy topological space, where interactions between expression points are governed by probabilistic distributions inspired by manifold learning approaches such as UMAP. Within this framework, we define an information geometric structure through a Fisher metric induced by these distributions, enabling the computation of geodesic trajectories that capture cellular differentiation processes. A key contribution of this work is the derivation of analytical conditions, expressed as expression radius formulas, that characterize local neighborhoods in gene expression space. These conditions allow for the identification of genes associated with stem cell states and predictions in transitional cell types in future work. Application of the proposed framework to single cell datasets reveals biologically meaningful gene sets enriched in key regulatory pathways and transcription factors, demonstrating the capacity of our approach to uncover latent structure in complex gene expression data. Our results suggest that integrating differential geometry with statistical learning theory offers a powerful paradigm for modeling genotype and phenotype relationships and cellular state transitions, with potential implications for precision medicine and systems biology.

With 302 neurons and a rigorously characterized connectome, the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans represents a powerful model organism to study the fundamental roles of neuronal circuits in behavior. However, despite the breadth of research, many questions remain unanswered regarding how these organisms are able to successfully navigate their environment. Here, we present a biologically grounded dynamical circuit model for the investigation of sensory-guided behavior during C. elegans chemotaxis. Our mathematical model consists of the chemosensory neuron AWA, interneurons RIM and RIA, motor neurons, including SMDs and RMDs, and body wall muscles that provide proprioceptive feedback through stretch receptors. After optimization with an evolutionary algorithm, the model locomotes effectively toward a chemical attractant, realistically capturing nematode chemotactic behavior. Chemotaxis is ensured by sharp turns, which resemble the omega turns of living nematodes, as a key emergent property of the model. The sharp turning behavior is triggered by decreases in the concentration of the attractant. These result in reduced AWA activity, which in turn triggers disinhibition of RIM and subsequent changes in RIA oscillations. The ensuing coordinated changes in downstream motor neurons activity patterns produce sharp turns, which correct the nematodes path, so that the model worm heads toward the attractant, and remains at its proximity, after it reaches the gradient peak. The proposed framework, along with its emergent dynamics, provides new insights into the minimum requirements for C. elegans circuitry to display major features of its chemotactic behavior, including omega turns. In parallel, it generates experimentally testable hypotheses with respect to the participating neuronal elements.

Equivalent numbers represent biodiversity as the effective number of equally distinct units, typically species, and can be partitioned across scales. In practice, they summarize each unit of biodiversity by a single value and compare units pairwise, misrepresenting units that are better described as distributions and the relationships between several units that share the same space. We introduce an equivalent-number index for assemblages of units represented as probability density functions (PDFs) over a continuous space, estimated as the integral of the pointwise maximum across abundance-weighted PDFs. Resulting equivalent PDF numbers fulfil elementary properties of classical equivalent numbers, and support additive partitioning across any number of nested scales. We illustrate the framework with case studies across three domains: (1) measuring trait diversity considering intraspecific variability in grasslands, (2) partitioning realized bioclimatic niches among clades of Carnivora, and (3) understanding seasonal changes in the partitioning of fish home ranges in geographic space.